Tag Archives: randomness

why is the time gap between new york and london variable?

i feel that little bit closer to the people of britain this week. one hour closer to be specific.

so the clocks in great britain have already moved back. those in new york have as yet not. so for a brief moment in time, the time difference is one hour shorter. for me, this has already led to several near-misses in terms of getting to conference call meeting on times. imagine what the economic impact could have been. ok, almost nothing. but is was at least an inconvenience.

one of the driving forces of modernisation is standardisation. it seems bizarre to me that we can’t all get together and agree to end this absurd practice. but how exactly would we ‘get together’? i assume that the UN has no ministry of international administrative detail. but maybe they should.

peace and security - check. human rights - check. ministry of clocks and time zones - nope.

CORRECTION – their IS a UN body responsible for the standardization of measures, processes and protocols. They need to pull their fingers out (and improve their web presence…) http://www.unece.org/cefact/

ok, so i don’t think everything should be internationally standardised. the defiant (and ironic) defence of the imperial system of measurement in america seems to be somewhat noble. the realignment of the side of the road on which people drive would have so many implications in physical rebuilding that i can accept that getting everyone to drive on the left hand side of the road is probably not practical. but some degree of further standardisation would seem to be in order.

like phone chargers for example. don’t even get me started on phone chargers. or indeed power points generally. grr.

a handy object that really should not exist

and this is just the international problem.what about some of the little things. today, i had to fill in my personal details in two different formats. within one office. why is there not an internationally recognised layout for forms, in which the basic details are listed in the same order. or, again even better, a single ‘personal detail’ sheet that can be taken to any new doctor’s office, or tax office, or HR department, meaning that all these different office need to do is produce a form for the supplementary information required.

(or, even better, allow me to email or submit an online form. that would really work well).

but how are we ever going to get to that point when we can’t even agree what order to list day/month/year. and agree that it’s definitely NOT month first.

a visual representation of obvious nonsense

to rescue myself from the pedantic whine into which i seem to be descending, there is a serious point here. whether on a national or an international basis, all societies are constantly stretching themselves to innovate: commercially, militarily, ethically. but who is taking care of innovating the boring stuff? to use our time more efficiently, with less stress and trauma, to allow us to focus our creative juices on the big stuff?

for a perspective on this in business, see the excellent rory sutherland (via dave ibsen’s rather good blog. but is anyone covering this for government? and what about on an international level?

http://tiny.cc/5p54z

btw – i now have some handy social media buttons below. if you like it, ‘like’ it. if you don’t, then leave me a comment as to why…

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the unevenly distributed future – 5 things that should be available in america, but aren’t

we live in a world obsessed with technological progress. or, more precisely, a world in which specific aspects of the assumed future are fetishised at any time.

at the moment, if i could create an iphone app that could tell you how to scratch your posterior, i’m confident i could get a few people to buy it, and probably a lot more journalists to write about it.

in this world, it is my professional duty to help people with significant business interests at stake to predict what forms of technology are going to be important in society in the future.

this, clearly, is impossible.

fortunately, there are a range of appropriate philosophical statements that help me to avoid this tricky social situation. my favourite, hands down is this one, that i believe came from william gibson, via clay shirky (see right), via chris stephenson/mediation (see right)

thanks william gibson. people don't have android brain implants yet though.

“THE FUTURE IS HERE ALREADY. IT’S JUST NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED.”

i find this a very useful way to help explain things…like why devising marketing for mobile phones is not in fact a remote prospect, but a high priority in the countries of africa or the far east…or why i can guess what we’re all going to be doing in a couple of years by looking at what teenagers are doing now…

however, that wasn’t i wanted to talk about today. i just wanted to share my astonishment and perfectly obvious and everyday inventions that for some reason don’t seem to travel between continents, despite their obvious benefit.

so here we go. 5 bits of the present or recent past in the uk that for some reason haven’t made it to the USA.

1. the electric kettle

it’s not like you actually can’t get one. you can get our hands on a very small, travel-focused kettle. or, of course an electric hot water device to help you make coffee. but if you go into any american home, the changes are that any cup of tea you get made will be made from water boiled for 10 minutes in a large ceramic cauldron-like receptacle.

it’s slow. it wastes energy. it means you hurt your hands when you grab the handle, 9 times out of 10. but, even in walmart, no electric kettle. just crazy.

electric kettles. better.

2. the affordable, healthy loaf of bread

so the USA is the third largest producer of wheat in the world, just marginally behind china and india. it’s population is built from many of the finest bread producing cultures all over the world. we live in an age obsessed with health, and in which decent quality food is widely available at affordable prices. but i just can’t get a decent loaf of bread anywhere in america for less than $5.

mmm. hovis. you don't know what you got 'til it's gone.

next time i go to london, i’m just going to fill an enormous suitcase with hovis and sell it round the corner from the farmer’s market.

3. blu-tack

ok, i know blu-tack itself has now been improved as white tack, and presumably clear tack is just around the corner too. maybe in the future, all kinds of tack will be unnecessary. for the moment, there are few better ways to attach a piece of paper to the wall.

sorry berno. i am not buck rogers. this is very common on my planet.

actually i just looked it up, and you can get blue tack in the USA, on mail order, so the global community is gradually working to bring it here. presumably some slips in from Canada too, where it is called Zorkai. maybe also from Iceland, where it is known as “kennaratyggjo”, which means teachers chewing gum. but when i showed it to the otherwise worldly Berno of jumptank recently, he looked at me as if i was Buck Rogers.

4. signs

i know i rant about this far too much already. i will keep it brief this time. but we all know that going through security or immigration in the USA is one of the most painful experiences the world has to offer. there is always, without fail, an incredibly uptight guy who will tell you as if he’s already said it 100 times to you that you have put your belt/shoes/laptop in the wrong place. but in fact they haven’t told you before. and you’re not an idiot (or a terrorist.) there just aren’t any signs telling you want to do.

a rare sign spotted in america. explained through different speeds of horse riding. baffling.

it doesn’t matter whether you’re queueing for security, or queueing for a salad, in this country, no-one will tell you what to do at the last moment, and then they will be incredibly frustrated with you when you do it wrong. in london, germany, sweden and japan they solved this many years ago. put up some signs.

5. red traffic lights

this is maybe just a new york problem. i will no doubt find out soon when i go driving around shortly in far flung places like philadelphia and the catskills. but in new york, red lights are meaningless.

this sounds ridiculous of course. traffic lights are one of the iconic sights of new york. and they are everywhere, in huge quantities. but everywhere else in the world, they serve the function of making it clear when you can and can’t drive. basic rule – red means stop.

does this mean stop? or go? does it depend if you are turning right?

not in new york. i find myself constantly having cars nudging towards me as i cross the road, even when i have a light telling me to cross. is it ok to turn right on a red light? the truth is, NO-ONE KNOWS

sorry for the long break for any regular readers i have. i must have a few, because i recently celebrated 1,000 hits. thanks all. truth be told, at least a couple of hundred of them seem to be weird phantom hits from strange destinations. but thanks anyway.

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dreaming of the historical potential of 100 years of google…

if you’ve never read ‘fooled by randomness’ by nassim nicholas taleb, it’s definitely worth a look. this is what it looks like in paperback – though not my coffee which is inexplicably covered in coffee. well, coffee spillage was always going to be happen to someone, so i shouldn’t feel upset that it was me.

i can’t quite agree with Malcolm Gladwell that ‘it is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s 95 these were to the Catholic Church.’ in fact i suspect in saying this that gladwell is making exactly the mistake scoped out in the book – mistaking a short term blip in intellectual discourse for a a long term see change in a thinking paradigm. but it is rather good.

it is a defiantly unscientific book in many ways, which appeals to me, but also (once you get past layer after layer of egotism on the part of its author) rather a refreshing and human one. in particular, it is salve to the wounds created by those peers or competitors that you see as being slightly more successful than you – don’t worry, says taleb, they are almost certainly just lucky, and if you hang around for a bit, you’ll see them fall flat on their faces (as long as you haven’t got too cocky yourself in the meantime, in which case it’ll be your face you should be worried about.)

the bit that i have been particularly enjoying is around the dangers of having too clear an idea of what is going on at the moment. he counsels traders to try to track their investments on a weekly rather than a daily basis, and laughs with scorn at those who check share prices of wirless devices. i think i will join him, it is a satisfying thing to do. the item below is a trap for fools of randomness.

of course it immediate occurred to me that this mistake is prevalent in all of the worlds in which i am most active – in marketing, in media, in politics and indeed in music and movies. we’ve all got to start checking the results a bit less often, otherwise we will never really know what is going on.

this is difficult of course. i have lost count of the time i have spent talking about social monitoring, instantaneous course-correction, live planning etcetra and nauseam. and if i have an intensely functional problem to solve, like getting as many people as possible into a cinema or onto a website within a couple of days, then this stuff is all pretty useful.

but if you really want to get a perspective on the health of a brand or company, or the quality of a piece of music or film, or the long term political prospects of a party and individual, a bit of patience clearly works wonders – otherwise you run the risk of becoming obsessed with burst of tweets or opinion polls or test screenings that really just reflect the consistent background noise created by randomness.

this takes me back to my post from yesterday (see below) and back to my friend Edmund Burke – a political opposite but a philosophical exemplar for me. if you really want to work out what the best thing is to do, don’t just ask lots of people right now, or analyse the patterns of behavioural data from the last couple of weeks – give it some time, and try to analyse what is really happening based on decent, long terms trends. we will then become less obsessed with trigger events and revolutions, and wiser in our understanding of evolution, and what might happen next. thanks edmund.

what becomes really exciting is when we begin to think at what this deluge of instantaneous data, thus far momentous in scope and detail, but fickle in terms of its trending and caught up in patterns of self-reference, could mean for understanding of human nature, if we start giving layering on to our approach for it a respect for the collective wisdom of time.

the mind boggles at what a historian would be able to do with 100 years of twitter or search data. i hope these sources are jealously preserved, and that someone remembers to look at them and ask interesting questions…once we get over the excitement of discovering the most tweeted subject of the week.

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